These are weird times for movies. I don’t know if “going to the movies” is really a thing anymore, and movies now compete with all these TV shows for in-home screen time and attention. Over the last couple years, I just haven’t seen as many of the Oscar contenders as I used to, plus there’s the expanded field (which I think is just a dereliction of duty by the Academy).

Anyway, here are some of the major award picks, based on what I saw in 2022.

Best picture

Who should win: The Fabelmans

Of what I’ve seen, this was the best movie. Spielberg telling his own story. Would it be a “lifetime achievement” award? Of course, but he DESERVES a lifetime achievement award. What a body of work. And there’s not a better movie. Everything Everywhere is just too gosh-darn hectic at the start, and honestly, the mother-daughter parenting relationship gets very complicated by the multiverse thing. All I could think at the end was, how ’bout some consequences, Michele Yeoh? Doesn’t your daughter at least get grounded for a weekend for destroying multiple universes? Apparently not. Banshees is another Martin McDonagh movie moving people around like chess pieces or props. Fingers? Totally optional. Chopping them off? No pain. Ultimately, these are characters, not people. I felt sorrier for the donkey than any of the human characters in the movie. All’s Quiet was brutal and effective, but I’ve seen that movie before, maybe just a few years ago. Top Gun: Maverick might deserve the award simply for reminding us what a blockbuster looks like and saving the movie business. It’s an insane amount of the box office gross for the year. Elvis was .. not good. Afterward, I went to YouTube to see an Elvis with actual charisma. Also bad: Triangle of Sadness, which was a movie about pretty people posing into their phones (why go the movies? I can see this anyplace people congregate). And puke. Lots of puke.

Who will win: Alas, I think it’s gonna be Everything Everywhere …

Best Actor
Who should win: Paul Mescal. Loved him in Aftersun.
Who will win: Colin Farrell. He’s a proxy for the donkey, whom everyone grieved.

Best Actress
Who should win: Cate Blanchett
Who will win: Cate Blanchett

Best Supporting Actress
Who should win: Jamie Lee Curtis. I get this is total old white guy, but she was so much fun in this movie.
Who will win: Stephanie Hsu. She is deserving and was very good.

Best Supporting Actor
Who should win: Ke Huy Kwan, though Judd Hirsch and Barry Keoghan were great.
Who will win: Ke Huy Kwan

Best Director
Who should win: Steven Spielberg
Who will win: Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

I haven’t seen enough or paid enough attention to do should/will, but here’s how I think these will go down …

Best Original Screenplay
Who will win: Banshees of Inisherin

Best Adapted Screenplay
Who will win: All Quiet in the Western Front

Cinematography
Who will win: Elvis

Best Visual Effects
Who will win: Avatar

Best Costume Design
Who will win: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever